OH SHIT ACADEMY AWARD PREDICTIONS POST! I almost forgot; I have really not been following the race that much this year.

Picture - Inglourious Basterds (not wishful thinking; Avatar wasn't critically acclaimed at all, and Hurt Locker bombed at the box office; I think they split it)
Director - Kathryn Bigelow
Actor - Jeff Bridges
Actress - Sandra Bullock
Supporting Actor - Christoph Waltz (his speech will talk about the group of people that came together to make IB, an academy if you will, with Quentin as the president, and he will single out individuals to thank based on which "branch" of the "academy" they belong to)
Supporting Actress - Mo'Nique
Original Screenplay - Quentin Tarantino for IB
Adapted Screenplay - Jason Reitman for UitA
Art Direction - Sherlock Holmes
Animated Film - Up
Cinematography - Avatar
Costume Design - The Young Victoria
Documentary - The Cove
Editing - Inglourious Basterds
Foreign Language - The White Ribbon
Make-up - Star Trek
Original Score - Up
Original Song - Crazy Heart
Sound Editing and Sound Mixing - Avatar
Visual Effects - Avatar

I don't predict the three shorts (doc, animated, live action) because who the hell even sees them? Anyway, editing usually goes hand-in-hand with picture, but Avatar might take it and still not win because I think most people who vote don't actually know what editing is. Same thing with the sound categories. If Avatar wins for Art Direction I will scream.

ETA: So, we're halfway through. I clearly miscalculated, and The Hurt Locker is definitely winning Best Picture. I can't believe it won both sound awards over Avatar; that's pretty damning.

I also can't believe that Avatar won Art Direction. TREES ARE NOT PRODUCTION DESIGN. Argh.

I also can't believe that Christoph is going to be the only Oscar for Inglourious Basterds. God. It was such a good movie! It was so wrong, in the screenplay category, the stark difference between The Hurt Locker scene and the IB scene, to then see THL win. Sigh.

For Holly: BSG S2 soundtrack. Speaking of which, where are you in the show? Let me know when you're up to Pegasus, okay?

On that note, Catherine, have you watched Yesterday's Enterprise yet?

You know what makes typing really hard? Wearing a wrist brace. I think I might have some carpel tunnel going on; my left wrist starting hurting on Thursday, pretty much in the middle of the day, without cause so far as I could tell. And I was whining and carrying on, like, why does my wrist randomly hurt? Then last night, I picked up a cross-stitch, and the very second that I grasped the fabric just so with my left hand to start work, pain shot up through my wrist like a bolt. So I think I'm going to lay off the stitching for a little bit, see if that helps. I had been trying to finish this project for my cousin-in-law, whose due date was Friday (I finished Saturday!), but she still hasn't had the baby.

Laura and I went to see Sherlock Holmes again. I know Giacchino's going to win the Best Score Oscar for Up - which irritates me on several levels, not least of which is the fact that I thought his own score for Star Trek was better - but I wish that Hans Zimmer would win for SH. It's a beautiful score, it really is. Right now, I'm guessing the movie will win for Production Design. I was idly thinking as I watched this time around, since I didn't have to pay as close attention to the plot, that steampunk would be a good choice for future home decoration. You've got the Victoriana, the fun gadgetry, but also the room in which to incorporate a lot of Neoclassicism. I've already thought about how to recreate some of the stuff from the film on a budget. Yes, this is how I spend my daydreaming driving time.

ETA: Eh, I did okay. Starring the ones I got right, as well as a few notes.

Oscar nomination predictions! In the tradition of Oscar Watch, I will make some No Guts No Glory picks, and will mark them accordingly. I don't feel tremendously confident in making picks this year, because I haven't really followed the race like I have in years past. Ah well.

Best Picture - 7/10
Avatar*
The Hurt Locker*
Inglourious Basterds*
Up in the Air*
Invictus (This went to An Education, which is fine.)
Up*
A Single Man (I picked the wrong man! They liked the Serious one!)
Precious*
The Blind Side*
Star Trek (NGNG) (Wrong SF film. :( Post on this to follow, because I'm sad.)

Best Director - 5/5
Kathryn Bigelow*
James Cameron*
Quentin Tarantino*
Lee Daniels*
Jason Reitman*

Best Actor - 5/5
Jeff Bridges*
George Clooney*
Morgan Freeman*
Colin Firth*
Jeremy Renner (NGNG)*

Best Actress - 5/5
Gabourey Sidibe*
Meryl Streep*
Sandra Bullock*
Helen Mirren*
Carey Mulligan*

Best Supporting Actor 4/5
Christoph Waltz*
Woody Harrelson*
Christopher Plummer*
Stanley Tucci*
Anthony Mackie (NGNG) (Hurt Locker support not as crazy as I thought; went with Matt Damon.)

Best Supporting Actress - 4/5
Mo'Nique*
Anna Kendrick*
Vera Farmiga*
Diane Kruger (NGNG) - (Shut up Penelope Cruz I blame you grrr.)
Penelope Cruz (this is the one I think is most likely to miss out since Nine tanked, but she did just win and this is kind of a weak category this year)* (Although yay for Maggie Gyllenhaal! Stupid Cruz, your movie sucked and now Diane has no nomination.)

I don't feel like doing the other categories. Avatar will be nominated for every tech category, the writing noms will likely follow the Writer's Guild nominations pretty well - switch out Quentin and Inglourious Basterds for The Hangover in original screenplay, Nick Hornby and An Education and Bright Star by Jane Campion (Bright Star totally shut out! Too bad.) for Julie and Julia and Star Trek in adapted. I don't even know which foreign films and documentaries are eligible this year, which is...weird. Eh. (I'm still getting up to watch the nominations, though, so I'm not that apathetic.

Did I, or did I not, call Christoph's acceptance speech for the SAG awards? For his Oscar acceptance speech, I'm assuming that he'll talk about what it means to be a part of an Academy dedicated to film, and how in some ways the cast and crew that made Inglourious Basterds is like the Academy, with Quentin as the president; everyone working to glorify film; etc, etc.

I may or may not have clapped my hands like a toddler when IB won Best Ensemble. That, coupled with Avatar losing the PGA to The Hurt Locker, makes me think IB has a real shot as a dark horse Best Picture winner, and that would be awesome. I haven't had one of "my" films win BP since ROTK.

Other than that, the SAG awards were nearly identical to the Golden Globes just six days earlier, which highlights one of my biggest problems with award shows (my biggest problem is genre bias): what I like to call the "Homecoming Queen" effect. When I was in high school, the so-called popular kids were outnumbered by the geek collective made up of band, drama, and FCA. We could have easily voted for our own when it came to dances, even making concessions to only choose the more popular of the non-populars, the cross-overs, the ones who stood on the boundary. But the super-popular girls always ended up nominated, which meant that the geek collective had to be voting for them, too. Which didn't make sense, because we didn't like them. But when you got your ballot, there didn't seem to be any point to vote for the trumpet player who was really nice or the stage manager who was really funny; they weren't going to win, so why waste the vote?

And I think this is what happens with the Oscars and related shows. Once the probable winners make themselves known on the critical circuit (which in its own way follows the same SOP and barring a few exceptions locks down itself within the first two weeks), everyone else pretty much follows suit. There might be a single acting category that could go either way, but even that is usually confined to an either-or between two candidates. And there's NEVER any feeling that all five are equally likely to win. So I've reached the point, as I do every year, where a lot of the fun is gone because we already know who's going to win 75% of the awards come Oscar night. :(

CHRIIIIIISTOOOOOOPH. (Although Laura and I were trying to figure out what his metaphor-driven speech for his inevitable SAG win would be; something about all the wonderful ACTORS he worked with and he was just a simple ACTOR but then he became part of a great ensemble of ACTORS...you get the idea.) I was also happy with: John Lithgow, Michael C. Hall ( :( ), Meryl and Sandra, Jeff Bridges, RDJ, Glee, Chloe Sevigny. The acting categories for film seem to have fallen into place, although comedy and drama being split up does nothing to help clarify the Sandra vs. Meryl race.

The one thing that drove me crazy about the Globes tonight? The whole Haiti thing. I mean, it is an absolutely horrific tragedy and everyone who is able to help and feels so inclined should do so. That said, I am so beyond sick and tired of overpaid actors standing on a stage, pretending to be so noble and humble and yet only being pretentious and self-serving, going on and on about how they know "what's really important" and how we should all donate money because they've donated money and obviously we, the common folk, should follow their lead. You know who actually donated a shit-ton of money? Sandra Bullock. Did you hear her say anything about it? No. Because she's one of the few who actually understands that charity isn't just another publicity device. If I had heard one more of them go on and on about dear generous Clooney and his tireless efforts blah blah, my head would have exploded. There was the same exact song and dance after 9/11 and the tsunami and probably something else I'm missing, and it's like, Hollywood? I do not need you to be my conscience. I do not need you to remind me that bad things happen in the world, and you're just an actor and your life is so great but now you've been reminded of how precious it all is and why don't I pick up the phone while I watch you in your $10,000 dress and jewels thanking your "team" as you hold a gold statuette. Seriously, STFU.

It's time for the Oscars! Sadly, at this final stage of the awards season, I'm actually a bit burnt out, and far less excited than I am for, like, the NYFCC. A lot of that is that most of the excitement of the race has dissolved away. After each field has been winnowed down to the same five to seven nominees, we start seeing the same winners over and over again; even though there are ostensibly five nominees, most battles are mostly being fought between only two people, with maybe a third as a dark horse. It's not really in keeping with the spirit of these shows, I think. And now with the shortened Oscar season, it's even worse.

Anyhoo, my predictions.

Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director: Danny Boyle
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke
Best Actress: Kate Winslet
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz

Best Original Screenplay: Wall•E
Best Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Animated Feature: Wall•E
Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire

Costume Design: The Duchess
Documentary: Man on Wire
Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Foreign Language: Waltz With Bashir
Make-Up: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Original Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Original Song: Jai Ho, Slumdog Millionaire
Sound Editing: The Dark Knight
Sound Mixing: Wanted
Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

These are who I think will win. I'd love to see Viola Davis win supporting for Doubt, but I'm afraid that with Doubt not making a strong enough showing outside of acting, it's not going to happen. I'd love to see In Bruges win original screenplay, but it came out too long ago and isn't about the environment, so.

Argh I knew I shouldn't have switched Sally Hawkins for Melissa Leo I KNEW IT, I SHOULD HAVE LISTENED TO SAG. Also, had picked Michael Shannon in my first go-round, and went with the Slumdog craze.

Yeah, The Reader! I haven't seen it, but how awesome was that? One of my crazy picks made it! I totally gasped when The Dark Knight didn't come up second, because I really thought there was no way that the Academy could ignore it. It made SO MUCH MONEY. What with The Reader getting in for Picture, Daldry for director (!!), and Kate for lead instead of supporting, I would start thinking about The Reader as a dark horse big winner.

Also, Amy Adams had been nominated for the SAG, so I guess it wasn't really going that much out on a limb. I did not count on Kate going lead for The Reader (how's that for standing up to category fraud, Caro?); speaking of which, it's kind of odd to see a film get four acting nominations (Doubt) and not make it into Best Picture.

Brangelina. ♥ ♥ ♥

Disappointed, but not surprised, that Michael Sheen didn't get nominated. AGAIN.

I normally hate Ben Lyons, but before the announcement he said that Robert Downey Jr. would be a surprise even though he's been nominated all season, just because of the character and movie he's coming from, and it's totally true. When he showed up on the screen, in blackface, it was kind of...well, I'll be honest, I totally laughed at the one or two almost offended gasps in the room.

My pre-season Academy Awards nominations post is here, and the actual nominations come out tomorrow, so I'm doing my final predictions. Critics awards, BFCA, Globes, and guilds have shook things up a bit; starred nominees are changes from my original predictions.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
*The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Director
*Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
*Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Best Actor
*Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
*Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
*Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actor
*Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
*Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader

And now, my No Guts, No Glory picks. I don't think they'll actually happen, ergo why I'm not picking them above, but there's always a surprise or two. Who knows!? The Reader for Best Picture; Amy Adams for Supporting Actress, and Brad Pitt getting a double nomination with Supporting for Burn After Reading.

Best Golden Globes ever, Y/Y?

Started some holiday baking today with Sarah, who stayed home today and yesterday from school because she's been sick for about three months and two doctor's visits. She's on, like, eight different medications, so hopefully she can finally kick this. We did sugar cookies, chocolate chip cookies, and butter pecan turtle bars; basically, what we could make with the ingredients we already have in the pantry. We're missing some of the "specialty" things, like condensed milk and cherries, so maybe later this week. I think this is the latest we've ever done cookies for Christmas; usually we have everything done and in the freezer three weeks clear. Maybe my mom won't freak out this year when everything's not already eaten before Christmas Eve, like in years past.

BFCA nominations came out today. They're one of the better Oscar prognosticators, mostly because I think they try to guess the Oscars as much as possible, so they're more relevant. I continue to be amazed, perplexed, and ANGRY that Clint Eastwood keeps picking up best actor nominations/wins for Gran Torino. Look, I've seen the trailer, and there's no way, NO WAY, that Clint gives one of the five best leading male performances this year. The movie looks like two hours of "Get off my lawn!" IDGI. I am really happy to see Cate Blanchett picking up notice, because I didn't think there was any way she would pick anything up this year after double nominations last year. Either she is absolutely smashing in Benjamin Button - too much so to ignore - or she's going to become a perennial nominee like Meryl Streep.

Look at Brangelina being totally cute!

National Board of Review announces Thursday, the critics awards will follow in the weeks to come, and the Oscar season will be underfoot! I thought it might be interesting this year to put out my predictions before we have any precursors, just based on buzz and my gut instincts; it's much easier to predict right before the Academy nominations come out, because you have the critics, Globes, and guilds to look at, and barring a few surprises, the actual Oscar nominations aren't that difficult to guess. I think I'm more interested in seeing how much the race changes from what a lot of people are guessing right now, than I am in trying to actually guess the nominations for reals.

Anyway!

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Kristen Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
James Franco, Milk
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader

I won't do all the other categories, but I think the techs will be dominated by Benjamin Button and The Dark Knight, and that screenplay and editing will, as per usual, mirror the films in Best Picture and the acting categories. I think Australia is definitely dead in the water and might score a tech or two, maybe sound, cinematography. Slumdog Millionaire will be your uplifting indie film of the year, a la Little Miss Sunshine or Juno, but won't gain anywhere near as much traction since the stars are Indian actors who don't stand a chance in hell of getting nominated.

People on this list I think are the most shaky: Taraji P. Henson, Robert Downey Jr., Melissa Leo, and Leonardo DiCaprio. I don't have much doubt that Kate Winslet will get a double nomination; the only stumbling block is if voters don't buy her as supporting for The Reader, and she cancels herself out. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Anne Hathaway fall off; she had a lot of early buzz, but it's been kind of eaten up by Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet, and it may be the kind of performance that ends up being forgotten later on, especially since Rachel Getting Married might score a supporting nod, but isn't likely to make it in any other categories except Original Screenplay.

It'll be interesting in a few weeks to come back, and see which actors have locked in after at least one inevitably storms through the critics' choices, picking up at least half of all mentions (like Helen Mirren, Amy Ryan, et cetera in years past).

Emmys, Emmys, Emmys. Wow, fashion was boring this year. I can't even think of a single dress that really stood out to me at all. Ladies, what is going on?

I can't believe Piven won again. I have never watched Entourage, but I'm sorry. It's Piven. He can't be that amazing, that he always wins this award. Christ.

I was very, very happy to see Zeljko Ivanek win. First of all, because he's my people, yo, and second of all, because he has been on everything, and he's awesome. I was very much surprised; I expected Mad Men guy to win. Speaking of which, Mad Men was not the sweep a lot of critics were expecting, which was nice. I mean, I don't watch the show, so I have no idea if it's good or anything (although the ten minutes I watched with Laura this weekend were painfully boring), but it was the favorite, so of course I wanted it to fail.

Disappointed BSG didn't get the writing win, but not surprised or anything. I mean, it really was just an honor to get nominated. (Although, when someone other than Mad Men won directing just prior, a tiny, tiny nugget of hope wormed its way into my heart, stupidly.)

Mary Tyler Moore's...arms...

Just don't have a host! At all! Just have the presenters come out, introduced by that voice in the ceiling that tells us how many previous nominations so-and-so has. That's all!

I actually thought the iconic TV locations thing was a really neat set dressing idea, and a lot more interesting than the usual Gigantic Awards and Amorphous Shiny Props; however, the Oval Office is not an iconic TV location. It's a real-world location that happened to be used in a TV show. I thought I was done with The West Wing! I think I had a PTSD flashback or something.

Eh, I thought The Office was funnier this year.

And finally, yay for Pushing Daisies! I was very glad to see Barry Sonnenfeld get the win, because talk about creating the visual look of a show that is NOTHING like anything else you see on TV. I can't wait for next Wednesday.

The most exciting Golden Globes in the recent past - at least in terms of surprises and winners - and it didn't actually really happen. Not that I'm too, too upset, as I think it was a great blow they struck and hopefully the threat of this happening to the Oscars will feel a bit more real now, but still. I wasn't really upset by any of the wins, although it looks like the acting frontrunners have shaped up and I don't see that we'll have many big surprises on that front. Why does that happen every year? Why does everyone just seem to unanimously reach this consensus that in the four performance categories, there is just one, maybe two, universally acclaimed performance(s)? I think it's an unfortunate by-product of the shortened awards season. I don't think we'll see another Adrien Brody-style win as long as the Oscars are in February.

I'm reading a book right now on the West Memphis Three that is really angering up my blood. If you've never heard of them and you feel the need for some cleansing rage, check out the wiki or the Paradise Lost documentaries.

I was kind of hoping for just one spoiler tonight at the SAG awards, and although LMS winning ensemble is another good shot in the arm for its Best Pic chances, it looks like the acting categories are set in stone. And I know, I haven't seen Dreamgirls, there's no reason for me to have so much antipathy for Murphy and Hudson winning...but damn it, I don't want them to win Oscars. And they're going to. I mean, watching the clips for supporting actress, and you have the women from Babel just being heartbreaking and wonderful, and Abigail Breslin just holding her entire film together, and Cate Blanchett being no less magnetic and amazing than you'd expect from her, even in just 15 seconds, Hudson was clearly not as charismatic and filmic and riveting. And I know that the response will be, it was a clip where she wasn't singing; when she's singing, that's when she's great. But...that's not acting. Singing, and communicating emotions while singing, is an entirely different craft. One that's very closely tied to acting, sure, but just having it captured on film doesn't make it film acting.

I don't know. I think that the last few years, with the shorter Oscar season, there's just no room for buzz to build and ebb and wax and wane, and whoever starts the season as the frontrunner just barrels all the way through to the end, and it just ends up being very boring and anticlimactic. I get this sense that people are afraid that if they vote for anyone other than the frontrunner, they'll be wasting their votes; what difference does that make?

Yeah, I just was very bitchy after the show tonight, which is dumb, but there you have it. Thankfully, Battlestar was gorgeous and wonderful and I just want to marry Laura Roslin, so I'm in a better mood heading to bed.