Academy Awards Prediction Post

Best Picture: The King's Speech
Best Director: Tom Hooper
Best Actor: Colin Firth
Best Actress: Natalie Portman
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld 
Animated Film: Toy Story 3
Art Direction: The King's Speech
Cinematography: True Grit
Costume Design: The King's Speech
Documentary Feature: Waste Land
Documentary Short: Killing in the Name
Editing: The Social Network
Foreign Language Film: Incendies
Makeup: The Wolfman
Score: The King's Speech
Song: We Belong Together (Toy Story 3)
Animated Short: The Gruffalo
Live-Action Short: Na Wewe
Sound Editing: Inception
Sound Mixing: Salt
Visual Effects: Inception
Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Original Screenplay: The King's Speech

Aw, I guessed wrong. I had thought that maybe while people appreciated The Hurt Locker, they weren't passionate about it; see Inglourious Basterd's win for ensemble, which is essentially Best Picture, at the SAG awards. But as soon as THL won both the sound wins over Avatar, I knew it had it in the bag.

Ugh, speaking of sound, I hated Morgan Freeman's "explanation" of what sound editing and mixing are. (I know he just read what someone else wrote, so I'm not mad at him.) Like, okay, editing is mostly finding/creating the right effects and layering them in, but mixing was described as getting the volumes of dialogue, effects and music at the right balance. That's, like, five percent of mixing. That's like saying that cinematography is about turning on the lights and pointing the camera toward the actors.

Okay show last night; bad transitions as always, but much less cringeworthy nonsense taking up space. I liked them showcasing the best score over the best songs for a change, but the dance troupe really wasn't necessary; if you can't just let people enjoy music, run a montage of moments in film from this year or something.

I wasn't really paying attention to the fashion much, and totally missed the red carpet, so I don't have much to say about that. I thought everyone looked nice except for Saldana's...puffy...things, and SJP looked horrifying and bizarre and IDGI. Helen Mirren remains a goddess, natch.

I haven't seen The Hurt Locker yet (everything depends on when it finally shows up when I'm at the library), so take this with a grain of salt: I can't help but wonder if a lot of people voted for it having not seen it either, just hearing it was a good movie and, more importantly, that it was about the war. We're talking a political bunch out there. Actual merits of the film notwithstanding, I think it's kind of hilarious and awesome that a straight-up action thriller won best picture. Like Catherine said, this was from the woman who brought us Point Break.

Which reminds me: a woman won for Best Director! Let's celebrate!

OH SHIT ACADEMY AWARD PREDICTIONS POST! I almost forgot; I have really not been following the race that much this year.

Picture - Inglourious Basterds (not wishful thinking; Avatar wasn't critically acclaimed at all, and Hurt Locker bombed at the box office; I think they split it)
Director - Kathryn Bigelow
Actor - Jeff Bridges
Actress - Sandra Bullock
Supporting Actor - Christoph Waltz (his speech will talk about the group of people that came together to make IB, an academy if you will, with Quentin as the president, and he will single out individuals to thank based on which "branch" of the "academy" they belong to)
Supporting Actress - Mo'Nique
Original Screenplay - Quentin Tarantino for IB
Adapted Screenplay - Jason Reitman for UitA
Art Direction - Sherlock Holmes
Animated Film - Up
Cinematography - Avatar
Costume Design - The Young Victoria
Documentary - The Cove
Editing - Inglourious Basterds
Foreign Language - The White Ribbon
Make-up - Star Trek
Original Score - Up
Original Song - Crazy Heart
Sound Editing and Sound Mixing - Avatar
Visual Effects - Avatar

I don't predict the three shorts (doc, animated, live action) because who the hell even sees them? Anyway, editing usually goes hand-in-hand with picture, but Avatar might take it and still not win because I think most people who vote don't actually know what editing is. Same thing with the sound categories. If Avatar wins for Art Direction I will scream.

ETA: So, we're halfway through. I clearly miscalculated, and The Hurt Locker is definitely winning Best Picture. I can't believe it won both sound awards over Avatar; that's pretty damning.

I also can't believe that Avatar won Art Direction. TREES ARE NOT PRODUCTION DESIGN. Argh.

I also can't believe that Christoph is going to be the only Oscar for Inglourious Basterds. God. It was such a good movie! It was so wrong, in the screenplay category, the stark difference between The Hurt Locker scene and the IB scene, to then see THL win. Sigh.

ETA: Eh, I did okay. Starring the ones I got right, as well as a few notes.

Oscar nomination predictions! In the tradition of Oscar Watch, I will make some No Guts No Glory picks, and will mark them accordingly. I don't feel tremendously confident in making picks this year, because I haven't really followed the race like I have in years past. Ah well.

Best Picture - 7/10
Avatar*
The Hurt Locker*
Inglourious Basterds*
Up in the Air*
Invictus (This went to An Education, which is fine.)
Up*
A Single Man (I picked the wrong man! They liked the Serious one!)
Precious*
The Blind Side*
Star Trek (NGNG) (Wrong SF film. :( Post on this to follow, because I'm sad.)

Best Director - 5/5
Kathryn Bigelow*
James Cameron*
Quentin Tarantino*
Lee Daniels*
Jason Reitman*

Best Actor - 5/5
Jeff Bridges*
George Clooney*
Morgan Freeman*
Colin Firth*
Jeremy Renner (NGNG)*

Best Actress - 5/5
Gabourey Sidibe*
Meryl Streep*
Sandra Bullock*
Helen Mirren*
Carey Mulligan*

Best Supporting Actor 4/5
Christoph Waltz*
Woody Harrelson*
Christopher Plummer*
Stanley Tucci*
Anthony Mackie (NGNG) (Hurt Locker support not as crazy as I thought; went with Matt Damon.)

Best Supporting Actress - 4/5
Mo'Nique*
Anna Kendrick*
Vera Farmiga*
Diane Kruger (NGNG) - (Shut up Penelope Cruz I blame you grrr.)
Penelope Cruz (this is the one I think is most likely to miss out since Nine tanked, but she did just win and this is kind of a weak category this year)* (Although yay for Maggie Gyllenhaal! Stupid Cruz, your movie sucked and now Diane has no nomination.)

I don't feel like doing the other categories. Avatar will be nominated for every tech category, the writing noms will likely follow the Writer's Guild nominations pretty well - switch out Quentin and Inglourious Basterds for The Hangover in original screenplay, Nick Hornby and An Education and Bright Star by Jane Campion (Bright Star totally shut out! Too bad.) for Julie and Julia and Star Trek in adapted. I don't even know which foreign films and documentaries are eligible this year, which is...weird. Eh. (I'm still getting up to watch the nominations, though, so I'm not that apathetic.

Did I, or did I not, call Christoph's acceptance speech for the SAG awards? For his Oscar acceptance speech, I'm assuming that he'll talk about what it means to be a part of an Academy dedicated to film, and how in some ways the cast and crew that made Inglourious Basterds is like the Academy, with Quentin as the president; everyone working to glorify film; etc, etc.

I may or may not have clapped my hands like a toddler when IB won Best Ensemble. That, coupled with Avatar losing the PGA to The Hurt Locker, makes me think IB has a real shot as a dark horse Best Picture winner, and that would be awesome. I haven't had one of "my" films win BP since ROTK.

Other than that, the SAG awards were nearly identical to the Golden Globes just six days earlier, which highlights one of my biggest problems with award shows (my biggest problem is genre bias): what I like to call the "Homecoming Queen" effect. When I was in high school, the so-called popular kids were outnumbered by the geek collective made up of band, drama, and FCA. We could have easily voted for our own when it came to dances, even making concessions to only choose the more popular of the non-populars, the cross-overs, the ones who stood on the boundary. But the super-popular girls always ended up nominated, which meant that the geek collective had to be voting for them, too. Which didn't make sense, because we didn't like them. But when you got your ballot, there didn't seem to be any point to vote for the trumpet player who was really nice or the stage manager who was really funny; they weren't going to win, so why waste the vote?

And I think this is what happens with the Oscars and related shows. Once the probable winners make themselves known on the critical circuit (which in its own way follows the same SOP and barring a few exceptions locks down itself within the first two weeks), everyone else pretty much follows suit. There might be a single acting category that could go either way, but even that is usually confined to an either-or between two candidates. And there's NEVER any feeling that all five are equally likely to win. So I've reached the point, as I do every year, where a lot of the fun is gone because we already know who's going to win 75% of the awards come Oscar night. :(

It's time for the Oscars! Sadly, at this final stage of the awards season, I'm actually a bit burnt out, and far less excited than I am for, like, the NYFCC. A lot of that is that most of the excitement of the race has dissolved away. After each field has been winnowed down to the same five to seven nominees, we start seeing the same winners over and over again; even though there are ostensibly five nominees, most battles are mostly being fought between only two people, with maybe a third as a dark horse. It's not really in keeping with the spirit of these shows, I think. And now with the shortened Oscar season, it's even worse.

Anyhoo, my predictions.

Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director: Danny Boyle
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke
Best Actress: Kate Winslet
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz

Best Original Screenplay: Wall•E
Best Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Animated Feature: Wall•E
Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire

Costume Design: The Duchess
Documentary: Man on Wire
Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Foreign Language: Waltz With Bashir
Make-Up: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Original Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Original Song: Jai Ho, Slumdog Millionaire
Sound Editing: The Dark Knight
Sound Mixing: Wanted
Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

These are who I think will win. I'd love to see Viola Davis win supporting for Doubt, but I'm afraid that with Doubt not making a strong enough showing outside of acting, it's not going to happen. I'd love to see In Bruges win original screenplay, but it came out too long ago and isn't about the environment, so.

Argh I knew I shouldn't have switched Sally Hawkins for Melissa Leo I KNEW IT, I SHOULD HAVE LISTENED TO SAG. Also, had picked Michael Shannon in my first go-round, and went with the Slumdog craze.

Yeah, The Reader! I haven't seen it, but how awesome was that? One of my crazy picks made it! I totally gasped when The Dark Knight didn't come up second, because I really thought there was no way that the Academy could ignore it. It made SO MUCH MONEY. What with The Reader getting in for Picture, Daldry for director (!!), and Kate for lead instead of supporting, I would start thinking about The Reader as a dark horse big winner.

Also, Amy Adams had been nominated for the SAG, so I guess it wasn't really going that much out on a limb. I did not count on Kate going lead for The Reader (how's that for standing up to category fraud, Caro?); speaking of which, it's kind of odd to see a film get four acting nominations (Doubt) and not make it into Best Picture.

Brangelina. ♥ ♥ ♥

Disappointed, but not surprised, that Michael Sheen didn't get nominated. AGAIN.

I normally hate Ben Lyons, but before the announcement he said that Robert Downey Jr. would be a surprise even though he's been nominated all season, just because of the character and movie he's coming from, and it's totally true. When he showed up on the screen, in blackface, it was kind of...well, I'll be honest, I totally laughed at the one or two almost offended gasps in the room.

My pre-season Academy Awards nominations post is here, and the actual nominations come out tomorrow, so I'm doing my final predictions. Critics awards, BFCA, Globes, and guilds have shook things up a bit; starred nominees are changes from my original predictions.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
*The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Director
*Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
*Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Best Actor
*Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
*Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
*Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actor
*Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
*Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader

And now, my No Guts, No Glory picks. I don't think they'll actually happen, ergo why I'm not picking them above, but there's always a surprise or two. Who knows!? The Reader for Best Picture; Amy Adams for Supporting Actress, and Brad Pitt getting a double nomination with Supporting for Burn After Reading.

Started some holiday baking today with Sarah, who stayed home today and yesterday from school because she's been sick for about three months and two doctor's visits. She's on, like, eight different medications, so hopefully she can finally kick this. We did sugar cookies, chocolate chip cookies, and butter pecan turtle bars; basically, what we could make with the ingredients we already have in the pantry. We're missing some of the "specialty" things, like condensed milk and cherries, so maybe later this week. I think this is the latest we've ever done cookies for Christmas; usually we have everything done and in the freezer three weeks clear. Maybe my mom won't freak out this year when everything's not already eaten before Christmas Eve, like in years past.

BFCA nominations came out today. They're one of the better Oscar prognosticators, mostly because I think they try to guess the Oscars as much as possible, so they're more relevant. I continue to be amazed, perplexed, and ANGRY that Clint Eastwood keeps picking up best actor nominations/wins for Gran Torino. Look, I've seen the trailer, and there's no way, NO WAY, that Clint gives one of the five best leading male performances this year. The movie looks like two hours of "Get off my lawn!" IDGI. I am really happy to see Cate Blanchett picking up notice, because I didn't think there was any way she would pick anything up this year after double nominations last year. Either she is absolutely smashing in Benjamin Button - too much so to ignore - or she's going to become a perennial nominee like Meryl Streep.

Look at Brangelina being totally cute!

National Board of Review announces Thursday, the critics awards will follow in the weeks to come, and the Oscar season will be underfoot! I thought it might be interesting this year to put out my predictions before we have any precursors, just based on buzz and my gut instincts; it's much easier to predict right before the Academy nominations come out, because you have the critics, Globes, and guilds to look at, and barring a few surprises, the actual Oscar nominations aren't that difficult to guess. I think I'm more interested in seeing how much the race changes from what a lot of people are guessing right now, than I am in trying to actually guess the nominations for reals.

Anyway!

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Kristen Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
James Franco, Milk
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader

I won't do all the other categories, but I think the techs will be dominated by Benjamin Button and The Dark Knight, and that screenplay and editing will, as per usual, mirror the films in Best Picture and the acting categories. I think Australia is definitely dead in the water and might score a tech or two, maybe sound, cinematography. Slumdog Millionaire will be your uplifting indie film of the year, a la Little Miss Sunshine or Juno, but won't gain anywhere near as much traction since the stars are Indian actors who don't stand a chance in hell of getting nominated.

People on this list I think are the most shaky: Taraji P. Henson, Robert Downey Jr., Melissa Leo, and Leonardo DiCaprio. I don't have much doubt that Kate Winslet will get a double nomination; the only stumbling block is if voters don't buy her as supporting for The Reader, and she cancels herself out. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Anne Hathaway fall off; she had a lot of early buzz, but it's been kind of eaten up by Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet, and it may be the kind of performance that ends up being forgotten later on, especially since Rachel Getting Married might score a supporting nod, but isn't likely to make it in any other categories except Original Screenplay.

It'll be interesting in a few weeks to come back, and see which actors have locked in after at least one inevitably storms through the critics' choices, picking up at least half of all mentions (like Helen Mirren, Amy Ryan, et cetera in years past).

I just got back from writing at Starbucks, which felt wonderful, as I've been in a bit of a writing funk lately. Sometimes you just have to buckle down and get to it.

My thoughts on the Oscars, let me show you them: All in all, I was fairly entertained by a ceremony celebrating films that, with few exceptions, I have not seen. I was surprised that there were actually surprises this year, as there really haven't been any since they moved the show up from March. Although I would have loved to see Cate win, I do enjoy Tilda Swinton and seeing her genuine shock at winning was nice. Her speech was ASOME, too. The only really objectionable nominee was Le Clooney, who wasn't going to win anyway, so it was relatively stress-free for a change, as I wasn't dreading someone I don't like heading towards their inevitable victory.

Dresses were boring for the most part; black and red, ho-hum. Cate looked beautiful but I hated the clunky necklace. Helen Mirren looked smashing as always, but no one else was really memorable.

Seriously, would they just can the song performances? Let's face it, the songs suck. Okay, the one from Once wasn't bad, but...it just slows down the show so much, and the staging is always boring and/or awkward, and no one cares. We don't get fifteen minutes for all of the cinematography nominees, or a selection of the best edits, so why the songs? Maybe it's just because I found the Enchanted songs to be really insipid stripped of their film context, but the whole thing was profoundly unenjoyable.

All in all, though, I can't wait till all these movies come to DVD, my library orders them, and they finally get put on the shelves, so I can watch them. Eight months from now is going to be great!

I jumped up this morning at the crack of 9am (having not been called to sub) and screamed in terrible, woeful anger, as I realized I had forgotten to get up and watch the Oscar nominations, as I have done every year since 2003 (and let me tell you, in LA, that's a bit more work).

My thoughts on the nominations, let me show them to you.

I'm so bummed that Sweeney Todd didn't make it into some of the bigger categories, like Picture, Director, even Actress/Supp.Actress for Carter. I stand by my belief that it came out about a week or two too late. However, I'm glad that Johnny did get nommed, but if anyone is going to upset DDL (and I've seen neither performance so this is purely about me wanting to see people I like win), I hope it's Viggo. I'm so glad he got nominated!

Totally surprised that Cate managed to get a double nomination. Every single precursor that she did, I was totally surprised. I wish she could win both. :( Very sad that Angelina didn't make it in, because Laura Linney's shown up in no precursors whatsoever. (My exact words as I read the list was, "Oh, Angelina!") Nice career mention to Ruby Dee.

Director's only surprise came with Jason Reitman getting in for Juno; I thought that would be the film without a director. I imagine now that Diving Bell didn't make it into Picture, though, Schnabel has less chance at a Director upset. It'll either go Coens-No Country, or Anderson-Blood. I haven't decided which yet. (It would be helpful if I'd seen any of these movies.)

As far as techs go, nice to see some for Bourne, which I think could have made it in to some bigger categories if it hadn't been No.3. It was a really well-made movie. I hope I hope Sweeney wins for production design, but that'll probably go to a BP nominee. Same goes for cinematography for Jesse James. (There are a lot of movies this year with really long names.) Three songs from Enchanted were nominated, so I'll call it right here that they'll cancel each other out and the song from Once will win. And I think Ratatouille's a shoo-in for Animated, but I'll continue to call Persepolis as a spoiler.

I think...that's all my thoughts.

I'm absurdly pleased by the fact that I called Alan Arkin. And also totally happy for him, obviously.

Missed a few others, no big deal, although I'm not happy that Children of Men didn't win cinematography. I liked Pan's Labyrinth a lot, but no. Children of Men. That movie was GORGEOUS. Should have figured that the Dreamgirls songs would cancel each other out, and I wanted to call Lives of Others because I'd been hearing the buzz on that over Pan's, but all in all, not a bad ballot this year.

Oh, Marty. I totally cried you guys. And even though I missed BP, it's okay, because The Departed was FTFW, and I'm so glad that in either its case or LMS's, they were movies that were good at what they were. LMS was a great comedy, Departed was a great gangster action flick. And that you don't have to make a deep, important movie about important things to be the best movie of the year.

I like when movies win, not films. There is a difference.

Is it can be no more grading times now plis?

My official Oscars prediction list:

Picture: Little Miss Sunshine
Director: Martin Scorsese
Actress: Helen Mirren
Actor: Forest Whitaker
Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson
Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin
Editing: The Departed
Score: The Queen
Original Screenplay: Little Miss Sunshine
Adapted Screenplay: The Departed
Cinematography: Children of Men
Foreign Film: Pan's Labyrinth
Costumes: Marie Antoinette
Art Direction: Pan's Labyrinth
Song: Listen, Dreamgirls
Documentary: An Inconvenient Truth

We'll see how I fare tomorrow. I'm very excited for the Oscars this year. Last year kind of sucked, as I hadn't seen a lot of the movies and wasn't really pulling for many people strongly; I feel more invested this year. Plus, I would totally be happy if three of the five BP nominees won (Departed, LMS, Queen), which is HIGHLY unusual. And since those are probably the top three going in, I hopefully won't be shocked and appalled (CRASH). I've resigned myself to Hudson winning, which still irks me, but whatever. I am going with Arkin, because I think LMS has the momentum and the guilds (PGA, WGA, SAG), and winning just BP and probably screenplay (unless The Queen sneaks up) feels a little soft. One supporting win will be more substantial, and Murphy's weaker. I also kind of wish O'Toole could grab this one, just because he's so amazing and this is probably his last chance, but Whitaker's been almost as much a juggernaut as Mirren.

Speaking of which, I saw her at some function this weekend wearing heavy plastic stacked heeled hooker shoes. She's amazing. I want some kind of Ocean's 11 movie, except with women: Helen Mirren, Judi Dench, Meryl Streep, Mary McDonnell, Cate Blanchett, Emma Thompson, etc, etc. Would that not be the most beautiful thing ever?

Oscar nominations! The season's been a little bittersweet the last couple of weeks, after I saw Children of Men and knew that it wouldn't get nominated for Best Pic and Clive wouldn't get in for Actor (Alfonso did get in for adapted screenplay, though!). However, there were plenty of other people and movies to pull for (and yet others to pull against...)

First of all, I knew it wouldn't actually happen, but the Globes gave me a passing moment of icy fear-thank the gods that Beyonce didn't get nominated for actress. It's nice to see Kate Winslet sneak in there even though she'll be number five in that list, but Kate, Meryl, Helen, and Dame Judi are pretty much my favorite, and the best, female actors working today. If Cate had somehow managed a leading nod instead of supporting, I'd have just thrown up my hands and been done with it. In actor, I was surprised LeoDiCap got in for Blood Diamond instead of Departed, but it probably is a stronger leading performance for him. Moo point, as Forest Whitaker is going to win. I haven't seen Half Nelson, but people have told me that Gosling is great, so I'm glad he was able to pull a nomination as he seems a nice sort.

Mark Wahlberg for the Departed in supporting! I know Eddie Murphy's going to win, but I'm glad Marky-Mark got in over Jack. Now, I think plenty of people are aware of my seething dislike of Jennifer Hudson and her apparent shoo-in for supporting actress, but I squealed out loud when I saw Abagail Breslin on the list, and squealed even more as I moved on down the list, for reasons I'll explain later.

Plenty of things to pull for in techs; Children of Men, Pan's Labyrinth, The Prestige, even Pirates. And then...the first big gasp and giggle of schadenfredualicious joy! Bill Condon didn't make it in for director! Now, Dreamgirls has been touted since October at least as the frontrunner; Oscarwatch has talked of little else best pic-wise for months now, and anyone who dared defy that proclamation was shouted down. But Condon didn't get in for director? That's going to hurt their BP chances, I told myself...

Back to techs. More of those other movies this year that were just as challenging and deep and interesting and about the human condition as those other movies, but the ones that did so with a veneer of fantasy or a dusting of science fiction. Yay for techs! Am definitely pulling for Philip Glass in score, as I discovered him this year, and The Illusionist's soundtrack is just gorgeous. I haven't had the chance to see the movie yet, it's next in my Netflix queue, but I've heard it's good, so I'm excited.

Dreamgirls didn't get nominated for Best Picture! Ahahaha! See, this weekend, Little Miss Sunshine won the PGA, and that was a big, big deal, as everyone assumed that it was between Dreamgirls, Departed, and the Queen. Did that mean that Little Miss Sunshine's stock was taking an uptick right before the end? Yes, yes it did. Which brings me to my retrospective musings on supporting actress. JHud has been rolling this category all season, and sometimes Oscar goes along with that momentum (Jamie Foxx, Hilary Swank), and sometimes they don't (Cate Blanchett, Adrien Brody). If Dreamgirls is cooling off just as Little Miss Sunshine is heating back up...I don't know. For the first time in this race, I'm getting a little bit of hope here. Because for no other reason than that I didn't like her on AI, and that I don't like season-long frontrunners unless I already really like the person (Helen Mirren and Forest Whitaker fit into this very hypocritical position), I just do not want Hudson to win. It's bad enough she got nominated for an Oscar, but I can allow that since Beyonce didn't and that makes me laugh at Beyonce. But I just really, really don't want her to win, and Abagail would be so cute walking up there and everything, so this'll be my big hope/fear category of the night. Thankfully it's early, so I don't have to wait too long for it in the ceremony, but sadly Hudson's still probably going to win, so I'm going to try to not let that sour the night for me.

(As I was typing this up, I was also opening up Marie Chantal and saw Lindsay Lohan's thread, and laughed that last year, as she was filming PHC with Altman, and Bobby with Emilio, she probably thought she'd get a nomination. And now she's in "rehab" and can't even get her stripper movie made. Oh, how I laughed.)